Based on the modeling result, the tipping point at which new cases will begin to decline will be on April 7th, 2020, with a peak of 32,860 new cases on that day. The estimated daily growth rate was 16.8% overall with 95% CI:, suggesting a doubling period of 4 days. With parameters obtained from this modeling, we reconstructed and predicted the growth of the epidemic and evaluated the extent and potential effects of underdetection. We fitted our model to data from a 2-week window (i.e., from March 21 to April 4, approximately one incubation period) during which large-scale testing was being conducted.
from January 22 to April 6, 2020, and reconstructed the epidemic using a 5-parameter logistic growth model. We used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data documenting the daily new and cumulative cases of confirmed COVID-19 in the U.S. Our new approach overcomes this limitation and provides data supporting the public policy decisions intended to combat the spread of COVID-19 epidemic. However, the shortage of testing services to detect infected persons makes this approach subject to error due to its underdetection of early cases in the U.S. using data that begins with the first reported cases.
Many studies have modeled and predicted the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) in the U.S.
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